ʻO ʻAsia Hikina ke kikowaena o ka umekaumaha i ka hana ʻana i nā pākahi lithium-ion, akā ma loko o Asia Hikina ua neʻe mālie ke kikowaena o ka ʻumekaumaha i Kina i ka makahiki 2000.I kēia lā, paʻa nā ʻoihana Kina i nā kūlana koʻikoʻi i ka pae honua lithium lako, ma luna a ma lalo, e hōʻike ana ma kahi o 80% o ka hana ʻana o nā kelepona pākaukau e like me 2021. , a i kēia manawa i ka makahiki 2020 kahi hoʻololi honua i nā kaʻa uila (EVs) e kau ana i ka makani i loko o nā peʻa o nā pā lithium-ion.No laila he mea koʻikoʻi ka hoʻomaopopo ʻana i nā ʻoihana lithium Kina i ka hoʻomaopopo ʻana i ka mea e mana ana i ka piʻi ʻana e hiki mai ana i ka hoʻokomo EV.
Ua neʻe ke kikowaena o ka ʻumekaumaha i Kina
Ua alakaʻi ʻia nā hanana lanakila he nui no ka Nobel Prize i ke kūʻai ʻana i nā pākahi lithium, ʻo ia hoʻi e Stanley Whittingham i ka makahiki 1970 a me John Goodenough i ka makahiki 1980. ʻOiai ʻaʻole i kūleʻa loa kēia mau hoʻāʻo ʻana, ua hoʻokumu lākou i ke kahua no ka holomua koʻikoʻi o Dr. Akira Yoshino i ka makahiki 1985. ʻoi aku ka palekana a me ka hiki ke kūʻai aku i nā pākahi lithium-ion.Mai laila mai, ua loaʻa iā Iapana kahi wāwae i ka heihei mua e kūʻai aku i nā pā lithium a me ka piʻi ʻana o South Korea i lilo ʻo East Asia i ke kikowaena o ka ʻoihana.
Ma ka makahiki 2015, ua ʻoi aku ʻo Kina ma mua o South Korea a me Iapana e lilo i mea hoʻopuka kiʻekiʻe o nā pākahi lithium-ion.Ma hope o kēia piʻi ʻana he hui pū ʻana o nā hana kulekele a me ka ʻoihana ʻoihana wiwo ʻole.ʻElua mau hui ʻōpio, ʻo BYD a me Contemporary Amperex Technology Company Limited (CATL), i lilo i mau alahele a i kēia manawa ua ʻaneʻane 70% o ka nui o ka pākaukau ma Kina.2
I ka makahiki 1999, ua kōkua kekahi ʻenekinia i kapa ʻia ʻo Robin Zeng i ka loaʻa ʻana o Amperex Technology Limited (ATL), ʻo ia ka turbo i hoʻonui ai i kona ulu ʻana ma 2003 ma o ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i kahi kuʻikahi me Apple e hana i nā pihi iPod.I ka makahiki 2011, ua wili ʻia nā hana pākaukau EV o ATL i Contemporary Amperex Technology Company Limited (CATL).I ka hapa mua o 2022, ua noho ʻo CATL i 34.8% o ka mākeke pākahi EV honua.3
I ka makahiki 1995, ua hele aku kekahi chemist ma ka inoa o Wang Chuanfu i ka hema i Shenzhen, e hoʻokumu i ka BYD.ʻO ka holomua mua o BYD i ka ʻoihana lithium i loaʻa mai i ka hana ʻana i nā ʻeke no nā kelepona kelepona a me nā mea uila uila a me ke kūʻai ʻana o BYD i nā waiwai paʻa mai Beijing Jeep Corporation i hōʻailona i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o kāna huakaʻi ma ka wahi kaʻa.Ma 2007, ua loaʻa i ka holomua o BYD ka maka o Berkshire Hathaway.Ma ka hopena o ka hapa mua o 2022, ua ʻoi aku ʻo BYD ma mua o Tesla i nā kūʻai aku o ka honua holoʻokoʻa, ʻoiai ua hele mai ia me ka hōʻailona e kūʻai aku ai ʻo BYD i nā EV maʻemaʻe a me hybrid, ʻoiai ʻo Tesla e kālele wale ana i nā EV maʻemaʻe.4
Ua kōkua ʻia ka piʻi ʻana o CATL a me BYD e ke kākoʻo kulekele.I ka makahiki 2004, ua komo mua nā pākahi lithium i ka papa kuhikuhi o nā poʻe kālai'āina Kina, me nā "Policies to Develop the Automotive Industry," a ma hope i ka makahiki 2009 a me 2010 me ka hoʻokomo ʻana i nā haʻawina no nā pākahi a me nā keʻena hoʻoili no nā EVs.5 i ka makahiki 2010, he ʻōnaehana ʻO nā haʻawina i hāʻawi ʻia i $10,000 a i $20,000 no nā kaʻa uila a ua loaʻa wale i nā hui e hui pū ana i nā kaʻa ma Kina me nā pā lithium-ion mai nā mea hoʻolako Kina i ʻae ʻia. ʻO ka koho ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o nā mea hana pākaukau Kina.
Ua hoʻoikaika ʻo EV Adoption ma Kina i ka noi Lithium
ʻO ke alakaʻi ʻana o Kina i ka lawe ʻana i ka EV he ʻāpana o ke kumu e piʻi nui ai ka noi honua no nā pā lithium.Ma 2021, 13% o nā kaʻa i kūʻai ʻia ma Kina he hybrid a i ʻole EV maʻemaʻe a manaʻo ʻia e hoʻonui wale ʻia kēlā helu.ʻO ka ulu ʻana o CATL a me BYD i loko o nā kānaka nunui honua i loko o ʻelua mau makahiki e hoʻopili ai i ka ikaika o nā EV ma Kina.
Ke piʻi nui nei nā EV, ke neʻe nei ka noi mai nā pākaʻi nickel-based a hoʻi i ka hao-based batteries (LFPs), ka mea i hāʻule mua i ka makemake no ka haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa o ka ikehu (no laila haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa).Maikaʻi no Kina, 90% o ka LFP cell manufacturing a puni ka honua i hoʻokumu ʻia ma Kina.7 ʻAʻole paʻakikī ke kaʻina hana o ka hoʻololi ʻana mai ka nickel-based i LFP, no laila e lilo maoli ana ʻo Kina i kekahi o kāna māhele ma kēia wahi, akā ʻike ʻia ʻo Kina. hoʻonohonoho maikaʻi ʻia e mālama i kahi kūlana koʻikoʻi ma ka wahi LFP no ka wā e hiki mai ana.
I nā makahiki i hala iho nei, ke neʻe nei ʻo BYD me kāna LFP Blade Battery, kahi e hoʻokiʻekiʻe nui ai i ka pahu no ka palekana o ka pākaukau.Me ka ho'āʻo ʻana o ka pahu pākaukau hou e hoʻomaʻamaʻa ana i ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka lewa, ua hōʻike ʻo BYD ʻaʻole i hele wale ka Blade Battery i kahi hōʻike nail penetration, akā ua noho mālie pū ka mahana o ka ʻili. nā kaʻa, nā kaʻa kaʻa nui e like me Toyota a me Tesla e hoʻolālā nei a i ʻole ke hoʻohana nei i ka Blade Battery, ʻoiai me Tesla e mau ana kekahi kānalua i ka nui.9,10,11
I kēia manawa, i Iune 2022 CATL i hoʻokuʻu i kāna pākaukau Qilin.ʻAʻole like me ka Battery Blade e manaʻo nei e hoʻololi i nā kūlana palekana, ʻokoʻa ka pākaukau Qilin iā ia iho i ka nui o ka ikehu a me nā manawa hoʻopaʻa. ʻo ia ka mea e hōʻike ana i ka ulu nui ʻana o ka ʻenehana ma hope o kēia mau pā.13,14
Hoʻopaʻa nā ʻoihana Kina i ke kūlana hoʻolālā ma ke kaulahao lako honua
ʻOiai he mea nui ka hana a CATL a me BYD ma ka wahi EV, ʻaʻole pono e poina ka nui o Kina i nā ʻāpana o luna.ʻO ka hapa liona o ka hana lithium maka e loaʻa ana ma Australia a me Chile, nona ka māhele honua o 55% a me 26%.Ma ke kahawai, ʻo Kina wale nō ka helu o 14% o ka hana lithium honua.15 ʻOiai ʻo kēia, ua hoʻokumu nā hui Kina i kahi kū i luna i nā makahiki i hala iho nei ma o ke kūʻai ʻana i ka nui o nā pā i nā mines a puni ka honua.
Ke alakaʻi ʻia nei ka spree e nā mea hana pākaukau a me nā miners.ʻO kekahi mau hiʻohiʻona kaulana i ka makahiki 2021, ʻo ia ka Zijin Mining Group i $ 765 miliona i kūʻai aku iā Tres Quebradas a me CATL i $ 298 miliona i kūʻai aku i kahi Cauchari East a me Pastos Grandes, ʻelua ma Argentina. ma Argentina ma ke kumu kūʻai a hiki i $ 962mn.17 ʻO ka'ōlelo maʻalahi, he mea nui ka lithium ma hope o ka'ōmaʻomaʻo'ōmaʻomaʻo a ua makemake nā hui Kina e hoʻokomo i ka lithium no ka hōʻoiaʻanaʻaʻole lākou e haʻalele.
Hōʻike ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu i ka hiki ke loaʻa ma waena o nā pilikia kūlohelohe
ʻO ka hoʻohiki ʻana o Kina e loaʻa i nā hoʻokuʻu kiʻekiʻe ma 2030 a me ka neutrality kalapona ma 2060 he ʻāpana o ka mea e koi nei i ka pono no ka hoʻokomo ʻana i ka EV.ʻO kekahi kumu nui i ka holomua o nā pahuhopu hou o Kina, ʻo ia ka lawe ʻana i ka ʻenehana mālama ikehu.Hele pū ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu me nā papahana ikehu hou a ʻo ia ke kumu e kauoha ai ke aupuni Kina i ka 5-20% o ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu e hele me nā papahana ikehu hou.He mea koʻikoʻi ka mālama ʻana e mālama i ka curtailment, ʻo ia hoʻi ka hoʻohaʻahaʻa ʻana i ka hoʻopuka uila ma muli o ka nele o ke koi a i ʻole nā pilikia hoʻouna, i ka liʻiliʻi.
ʻO ka pumped hydro storage i kēia manawa ke kumu nui loa o ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu me 30.3 GW e like me 2020, akā ma kahi o 89% o ka mālama ʻole hydro ma o nā pā lithium-ion. ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o nā pila no ka mālama ʻana i ka manawa pōkole, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā mea e pono ai no nā mea hou.
Loaʻa ʻo Kina i kēia manawa ma kahi o 3.3GW o ka nui o ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu puʻupuʻu akā aia nā hoʻolālā no ka hoʻonui nui.Hōʻike ʻia kēia mau hoʻolālā i ka kikoʻī ma ka 14th Five-Year Plan for Energy Storage i hoʻokuʻu ʻia ma Malaki 2022.20 ʻO kekahi o nā pahuhopu nui o ka hoʻolālā ʻo ka ʻoki ʻana i ke kumukūʻai pākahi o ka mālama ʻana i ka ikehu e 30% e 2025, kahi e hiki ai ke mālama. 21 Eia kekahi, ma lalo o ke kumumanaʻo, ke manaʻo nei ka State Grid e hoʻohui i 100GW i ka hiki ke hoʻopaʻa ʻana i ka pākaukau ma ka makahiki 2030 e kākoʻo i ka ulu ʻana o nā mea hou, ʻo ia ka mea e hoʻolilo ai i nā ʻauwaʻa mālama pākaukau o Kina ka mea nui loa ma ka honua, ʻoiai ma mua o ka. ʻo ka US i manaʻo ʻia he 99GW.22
Ka hopena
Ua hoʻololi mua nā hui Kina i ke kaulahao hoʻolako lithium honua, akā ke hoʻomau nei i ka hana hou i ka wikiwiki.Ma ke ʻano he hōʻike i ko lākou koʻikoʻi i ka ʻoihana, e like me ʻAukake 18, 2022, ua hana nā hui Kina i ka 41.2% o ka Solactive Lithium Index, kahi papa kuhikuhi i hoʻolālā ʻia e nānā i ka hana o nā ʻoihana nui a me ka nui o ka wai e hana nei i ka ʻimi ʻana a. /a i ʻole ka ʻeli ʻana o ka lithium a i ʻole ka hana ʻana i nā ʻāpana lithium.23 Ma ke ao holoʻokoʻa, ua hoʻonui ʻia nā kumukūʻai lithium he 13-paila ma waena o Iulai 1, 2020 a me Iulai 1, 2022, a hiki i $67,050 no ka ton.24 Ma Kina, ua lele ke kumukūʻai o ka lithium carbonate no ke ton. mai 105000 RMB a i 475500 RMB ma waena o ʻAukake 20, 2021 a me ʻAukake 19, 2022, e hōʻailona ana i ka piʻi ʻana o 357%.25 Me nā kumukūʻai lithium carbonate i piʻi a kokoke paha i nā kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe, ʻo nā hui Kina i kahi kūlana e pono ai.
ʻO kēia ʻano o nā kumukūʻai lithium ua kōkua i nā kumukūʻai Kina a me US e pili ana i nā pihi a me ka lithium i ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka mākeke ākea ākea ma waena o nā kūlana mākeke ʻino;ma waena o ʻAukake 18, 2021 a me ʻAukake 18, 2022, ua hoʻihoʻi ka MSCI China All Shares IMI Select Batteries Index i 1.60% e kūʻē i -22.28% no ka MSCI China All Shares Index.26 ʻOiaʻiʻo, ua ʻoi aku ka nui o nā pākini Kina a me nā mea pākaukau ma mua o nā waihona lithium honua. e like me ka MSCI China All Shares IMI Select Batteries Index i hoʻihoʻi i 1.60% e kū'ē i ka Solactive Global Lithium Index hoʻihoʻi mai -0.74% ma luna o ka manawa like.27
Manaʻo mākou e hoʻokiʻekiʻe ʻia nā kumukūʻai lithium i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana, e hana ana ma ke ʻano he headwind no nā mea hana pākaukau.Ke nana nei nae,ʻO ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i ka tachnology pākahi lithium hiki ke hana i nā EV i ʻoi aku ka maʻalahi a me ka maikaʻi, a laila hiki ke hoʻonui i ka noi no ka lithium.Hāʻawi ʻia i ka mana o Kina i ke kaulahao hoʻolako lithium, manaʻo mākou e hana nui nā hui Kina i ka ʻoihana lithium no nā makahiki e hiki mai ana.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Nov-05-2022